It is official: I am now a John McCain supporter....again....  The best part is that I support a candidate that I think actually has a chance.  Take that Ron Paul fans. 

I don't have to begin with why I like the man: everyone does.  After all, he is a bona-fide war hero with a good head on his shoulders.  He has proven his willingness to work across the aisle and still seems fairly set his ideology.  His faults are pretty straitforward: he just loves to stare into that reflection a bit too much maybe.

What I do have to mention, and spend great lengths explaining is why Captain McCain has a chance in this election.  After all he has not only watched his poll numbers slash into a quarter of what they used to be, but he has accelerated the decent with overspending and weird comments that don't really make sense.  Still, when all is said and done we all love weird comments that don't make sense -and by we I mean republicans.  We did -after all- elect George Bush.  They can sometimes be endearing and every gun-loving American has probably fantasized about shooting Osama anyways... by the way to clarify I'm no ardent NRA supporter, but still.

John McCain's most significant obstacle is not a Senator, but a citizen.  Right about now Rudy Gulliani should be nervously pacing his office wondering what exactly went wrong.  He has consistently held a lead -and a commanding lead at that- in the polls for months now...since McCain collapsed anyways.  Even so, he hasn't made any headway whatsoever.  His numbers gently eb and flow, but they never pop.  No one wants to come around him.

More stressing for this candidate is his lack of funds.  He does have enough money to mount a serious campaign and get his message out there, but then one must ask what exactly his message is.  And let's not pretend that simply because he has money that he is in a good fiscal position.  He's in anything but.

In fact no republican candidates are.  Democratic fundraising outpaces Republicans in unprecidented ways.  Current republican warchests combined only slightly outpace Barak Obama and don't approach Clinton.   Combined they have only broached 160mil as opposed to the democrats who have raised nealy 250mil.  

Two reasons can account for this and the truth probably reflects a bit of both.  First, people may have awoken and realized that Republicans are horrible people after all and that they were wrong to support them with their money before.  Okay, okay, that's loaded language, but seriously, people may see the Republican Party as too weak to stand a chance and simply not feel compelled to support them this go around cause it's just not feasible.  This seems unlikely as a major cause though it may be a factor.

The more reasonable solution is what should terrify Rudy Gulliani: Republican Donors simply haven't seen their guy yet.  Nobody is making a strong enough impression to warrant their funds and to a man who has led so strongly and consistantly in the polls this isn't a welcome message.  Republicans simply are unwilling to unite around him despite his commanding lead, 47 million dollars, thirty million of which he has spent trying to persuade them.

While on the money note, let's examine some other candidates through this perspective.  Top earner Mitt Romney has collected an impressive 62 million outpacing even Giulliani.  Unfortunately he seems unable to convince voters either as his campaign has spent 53 million on swaying them and still comes in at a distant third at best.  Currently his debt outpacing the money his campaign holds on hand.

These figures show two remarkable things.  First and most importantly, people aren't donating to republicans.  Yes, this is likely a reflection of the state of the republican party in part, but realistically that doesn't account for the wide disparity between previous years and this year.  People who donate republican are unlikely to just throw their arms up like that; this is especially true with the hated Hillary in the mix.  Second, feeding off of this, those who have collected money succesfully really haven't been successful either.  They have spent millions trying to persuade voters that they are the man and it hasn't worked at all.  They have gotten nowhere in the polls.

Meanwhile Giulliani has announced that he has all but abandoned the notion of victories in early primary states, a terrible idea for a man whose virtue is his electability.  The last man to run on that platform was decided in the primaries (that being Kerry of course).  Besides Iowa and New Hampshire are perfect locations for any candidate to prove that.  Giulliani's departure from these states is further a sign of significant weakness.  Furthermore it doesn't match at all with his campaign strategy.  Relying on the latter primary states will get him back home to New york faster.

While all this intense debate occurs a notable face sits in the background laughing.  

Fred Thompson recently gave a five minute speech before waving goodbye.  Months earlier announcers compared him to Ronald Reagan.

Fred Thompson has been unimpressive at best; we listened to Ronald Reagan and Thompson is no Ronald Reagan.  He has given the Republican party nothing of value and has still managed to garner a number two spot in the polls.  I have a theory on this.  I bet someone at a dinner party once said, "You know... I wish that Ronald Reagan fellow was still around," and then caught a chance glance at Thompson laughing at a nearby table.  They probably shrugged their shoulders, uttered, "what the heck", turned to the person next to them and concocted the far-fetched comparison.

Still Thompson's campaign has no reason to change strategy.  Ronald Reagan after all had a message they don't.  He had charisma and charm and I'm begining to wonder if Thompson even has those.  He had an executive background displaying bipartisanship and conservative values simultaneously.  Thompson has a legislative background that hasn't seen an addition in years.  We certainly wouldn't want to bring any of these to light for our next Ronald Reagan.

But do excuse my sardonic attitude in saying that, because there is even more at work here than that.  Thompson's Reaganesque qualities (or lack thereof) aren't the only reason why he shouldn't change his strategy.  He is in second place in a position where the most popular candidate hasn't really done anything; where the top earner hasn't sold his candidacy (or bought it anyways).  It only makes sense that Giulliani will collapse and if he does then Thompson is there to smile and wave.  Unless his candidacy ends as quickly as his speech did.  Of course the chances of that occuring go down substancially if he just sits tight.

And then there is John McCain.

Here is a man who has proven an ability to raise money before.  His political influence reaches deep into capital hill and yet he has the reputation of a "maverick".  Out of every presidential candidate, he is perhaps the most liked despite his poor poll ratings.  When asked why people don't support him the answer is usually because of his poor numbers more than anything else... at least it is at this point.  And those numbers sank because he rolled his dice with the war and lost.  But didn't every other candidate (aside from Paul) do the same thing?

John McCain may be our next president and in my next post I will show you exactly how he can do this.

"Free Hugs" seem to be the new rage on campus.  The offer contains many peculiarities: for instance, why?  I'm not the busiest person on earth evidenced by the fact that I am right now ranting on "free hugs"; appearently I would rather write this than offer a meaningless embrace from under a big sign.  Or how about this:  aren't all hugs free?  And I mean this from an accounting standpoint as I assume they do because as we all know nothing is truly free.  Even if that price is so negligible that it approached free than why hug in the first place?  They could be offering many kinds of hugs, but the point they wish to emphasize is not the quality of the hug or its purpose, but the price.  And yet that quality can be applied to most any hug I've ever seen.

I find it so funny whenever I read these signs that my gut reaction is to find the catch.  What is it that they are selling and will my newfound friendship with whomever the person compell me to sign some petition, give a number, or listen to a sales pitch?  I'll admit that this is more my problem than theirs.  After the act, both the hugger and I will probably just go our separate ways and look back fondly at our embrace.  Still, I think that my reaction is very telling.  What does such a reaction say?

Ilsa Lund did not love Victor Lazlo.

I'm back!  CIVICUS seems intent on keeping us exhausted this first week of school for reasons I have yet to discover.  I knew it would be nice to see everyone once again, but I'm suprised at just how happy I am to be back.  Now that is not to say that I don't miss home, I do despite being only a couple dozen miles away.  Still, It's nice to be back... unless I'm tired and it's three o'clock in the morning...and people are right outside the door carrying on a very loud conversation.  Even that is almost funny at this point though

The more I read the more I realize that a good book and a logically tight book are not always synonymous.  This makes a certain amount of sense when considering dictionaries, textbooks, and histories of whatever the heck bores you to death.  But after reading Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point I realized that the inverse of that can also be true.  Books with visible logical flaws can still qualify as good reads.

The Tipping Point explains why certain trends quickly become epidemics, while others fizzle out before they even begin.  Behind every epidemic, whether positive or negative three kinds of people work behind the scenes driving the movement forward: mavens, connectors, and salesmen.  Of course it takes more than people to create an epidemic.  Any product, disease, or attitude that gains constitent momentum must be both contagious (easy to spread) and sticky (hard to weed out).

Gladwell's core thoughts are both well developed and practical, but in search of creating a 300 page book he sometimes gets lost in fifty page tangents that don't add up logically.  When the end of the book finally arrives, he grapples with how to conclude it and eventually feels compelled to add an Afterward to explain that to us better.  Unfortunately even his afterward is somewhat convoluted.

Still, The Tipping Point is a worthwhile read.  The logical errors that I discovered were almost welcome as I examined and explained them to myself and they helped me to reach a number of conclusions I would have otherwise missed.  I would recommend The Tipping Point to any business, medical, or political science student who wants to understand how to easily make profound changes.

Tags: book review, epidemics, malcolm gladwell, the tipping point

As a college student I am entitled to a few moments every week or so when I can pretend that I know everything.  Of course I do not know everything and because of that it can often be hard to find an audience willing to play along.  Talking to myself sometimes seems satisfying, but it gets boring after a while; plus, I'm fairly sure that makes me crazy.  Blogging on the other hand solves that dilemma by creating an audience -even if an imaginary one- and providing it with an opportunity to consider my thoughts and file them away.

My search for an online journal or whatever you want to call it brought me here.  I only know one person on LiveJournal right now and though I do seek every opportunity to impress him that is not why I chose this place.  I figure my lack of contacts on this site is a problem easily solved.  Really the more I think about it, I don't think it's much of a problem at all anyway.  I did blog quite frequently on Xanga years ago, but it was my high school blog and though there is nothing inherently wrong with the site, the aura hasn't changed and I have.  Myspace and its many frills make any attempt at serious reading or writing nearly impossible.  Similarly, Facebook was never intended to be a forum to share one's thoughts.  Very few people read "notes" and  fraction of those who do really desire to think or respond in any way at all.  LiveJournal, though it has it's problems - one being that it's easy to lose a post as I have already painfully discovered-, does allow for serious reading, thought, and response.

That said, allow me to introduce myself.  My name is Danny Leydorf and I am currently a Junior at the University of Maryland.  I am majoring in both political science -with a concentration in theory of government- and economics -with a concentration in...well...nothing.  Conversation is my favorite pastime, especially with my best friends, and especially in scenic places.    Right now I am reading and thoroughly enjoying The Tipping Point by Malcom Gladwell and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows,  Casablanca is my favorite movie and I have yet to find a food I can readily say is my favorite.  I take that as a sign that I haven't eaten it yet.

And now on to my life...